Let me say this first: Scotland’s attack has really been a bit underwhelming. In two group matches, they’ve scored just 1 goal, and in the last game against Morocco, they didn’t even manage a single shot on target! With that kind of attacking efficiency, it’s really tough to go toe-to-toe with Brazil. As for Brazil, although they were held to a draw by Morocco in their opener, they bounced back with a 3-0 win over Haiti in the second round, and their form is clearly improving. Plus, Neymar is reportedly set to make his return in this match, and with him in the side, Brazil’s threat in attack will definitely be much greater. And then there’s the head-to-head record: Brazil have never lost to Scotland, with 7 wins and 2 draws, so the psychological edge is huge. Also, Brazil are chasing top spot in the group, so they’re very unlikely to take it easy. After all, the knockout-stage opponents will be different. Scotland, meanwhile, are in a do-or-die situation, but the gap in overall quality is there, and effort alone will be hard to make up for it. Of course, the risks need to be made clear as well. If Brazil decide a draw is enough and play conservatively, or if Scotland perform above expectations, then the handicap could still be tricky to cover. I’m not saying this is 100% safe—there’s no such thing as certainty in football, of course. But taking overall quality, current form, and the head-to-head record into account, I think the away side -1.25 has the better value here.