First, let’s talk about Japan’s tactical system. Hajime Moriyasu has spent eight years refining this flexible possession-based style plus high pressing, and it’s really not just talk, right? Their 4-2-3-1 shape is executed very strongly, with a pass completion rate consistently around 85%. The combinations in the half-spaces are smooth as silk, and they manage the tempo of transitions between attack and defense extremely well. They scored 6 goals and conceded only 2 in the first two rounds, with a very balanced attack and defense, and they haven’t lost in their last 9 matches. Their form is rock solid. As for Sweden, there are really quite a few problems. Potter has only just taken over, and the back-three system has not been properly worked out at all. The wing-back rotations on both sides are especially poor in terms of understanding and coordination. In their last match, they were thrashed 5-1 by the Netherlands, with open space everywhere down the flanks, and the midfield and back line were completely disconnected. Lindelöf’s lack of pace when turning was exposed to the fullest. When they drop into their defensive shape, the half-spaces are so open you could drive a horse through them. Against a team like Japan, which is excellent at short passing combinations, that is simply far too easy to exploit, right? And then there is the motivation factor. Japan only needs a draw to advance comfortably, so their mindset is very stable. Sweden, on the other hand, must win to qualify, so they will definitely have to push forward and attack. Once Sweden pushes up, the space behind them becomes even bigger, and Japan are very strong in transition. Isn’t that just the perfect matchup? Of course, Takefusa Kubo being out injured does have an impact, and Japan’s ability to break through on the wings will drop somewhat. Sweden’s aerial advantage also cannot be ignored. But taking into account tactical maturity, defensive stability, and mentality, I personally lean toward Japan winning the match and favor the home side -0.5.