Don’t treat Qatar like an easy target just because of the lineups — this Over 2.25 has a real case.
An old scout who has watched the World Cup for two decades puts it bluntly: don’t assume Canada are a lock and therefore this has to be a low-scoring game. In this match against Qatar, the safety margin for Over 2.25 is actually not low, and as a standard reference it looks very reliable.
A lot of people think Qatar will park the bus and defend deep, but that may not be the case. This is a crucial match for them in the World Cup finals. After losing their opening game, they will surely want to get something — even a goal — in the second match, and they won’t just sit back in their own half and take pressure. They’ll leave players pushing forward from midfield, and the back line will step up at the right times, which naturally creates space behind them. Canada, meanwhile, are already a side that leans toward strong attack and weak defense. With Davies driving forward, nobody can really stop him, and they definitely won’t be holding back in attack.
Looking at both defenses, neither is exactly a wall. Canada are slow to turn at the back and not particularly strong in the air either, so Qatar could still nick one from a set piece or a cross from wide areas. As for Qatar’s defense, it doesn’t need much explanation — they were pinned back by Switzerland in the opener and faced 26 shots. If it hadn’t been for an inspired goalkeeper, they would have conceded several. Against a pace-heavy side like Canada, they are bound to give up chances.
Both teams have attacking ideas, and both defenses have weaknesses. This should lead to a fast tempo and plenty of transitions, which naturally brings goals. Of course, football is never 100% predictable, but in a normal game, the chance of total goals going over 2.25 is not low.