It’s easy to say they average more than two goals a game and should be able to beat DR Congo by two or three at a minimum. But you have to break the numbers down and look at who those goals came against. Teams like Luxembourg and Liechtenstein are at that level, and winning by four or five is normal, so the value of those numbers is really limited. When they run into a tough opponent that sits deep, defends in an organized way, and plays with discipline, Portugal’s attacking efficiency immediately drops. An average of more than 20 shots a game looks impressive, but the conversion rate is only just over 10 percent. A lot of those efforts are long-range shots from outside the box or pointless crosses from wide areas, with only a handful actually threatening the goal. Against defensively resilient teams like Chile and Poland, they only won by one goal, with the total goals never going over two. It’s not that Portugal can’t do it; it’s that breaking down a compact defense has never been something solved simply by stacking star players. You need space and changes in tempo. Against teams determined to park the bus in their own half, anyone would have a hard time. DR Congo, to be fair, may not have many other strengths, but their defense is genuinely annoying to deal with. They are born with a low-scoring profile. In their last 30 official matches, 80 percent of the games have finished with fewer than three total goals, and matches with three or more goals make up only a little over 10 percent. That’s not a fluke. They mainly play with a back five plus four midfielders, packing the area in front of the box and inside it, closing off even the passing lanes. Their defense isn’t built around one star player; it’s the product of a whole system, with strong discipline, good positioning, and clearances when needed. They also use smart fouls from time to time to break up your attacking rhythm, making it almost impossible to play flowing passing combinations. In World Cup qualifying, they conceded just five goals in 12 matches, averaging more than 60 shots faced per goal conceded. Their defensive margin for error is absurdly high. In a warm-up match against a full-strength Denmark, they even managed to keep a clean sheet. With that kind of defensive solidity, even if Portugal are very strong, scoring three goals with ease is far from simple. Some people also say Portugal have a deep bench and can come off the bench to score in the second half, but that depends on whether the coach is willing to go for it. What kind of manager is Martínez? He is well known for being pragmatic. In a three-game World Cup group stage, taking all three points in the first match is more important than anything else. There is no need to exhaust the starters just to squeeze out one or two extra goals, especially while risking being caught on the counter and conceding one at the other end. Colombia are also waiting in the same group, and they are the real battle for first place. There are plenty of tough games ahead. The most likely pattern is that once Portugal score first, they will settle down, keep possession, and manage the clock. If they can win, that’s enough; they won’t go all out just to boost goal difference. If they do go two goals ahead, they may even take a few starters off to rest, and the attacking intensity will drop a notch, making further goals naturally harder to come by. On top of that, the two sides have never played a competitive match against each other, so this is a pure first meeting. Portugal are unfamiliar with DR Congo’s defensive rhythm and physical intensity, so they will certainly start cautiously rather than attacking recklessly from the opening whistle. The first 30 minutes will basically be about each side feeling the other out, making it very hard to produce high-quality attacking moves. By the time they gradually find their rhythm, the half may already be nearly over. It has long been a World Cup tradition for strong teams to start slowly in their opening match, and Portugal in particular have often had that problem. In recent major tournaments, their opening games have been scrappy, and they have usually struggled to build a big lead in the first half. DR Congo’s own attack is not strong enough to support a high-scoring game either. They mainly rely on counterattacks and opportunistic chances. Their midfield is not especially strong in build-up play, and against Portugal’s high press they are likely to lose the ball easily. Across the whole match, getting two or three decent counters would already be good; turning those into goals with any consistency is difficult. In short, Portugal will find it hard to score freely, and DR Congo will find it even harder to score at all. Put the two sides together, and the total number of goals naturally is unlikely to be high. Of course, football is never 100 percent predictable. If an early penalty is awarded or the goalkeeper makes a basic mistake, the total could certainly be affected. But based on normal levels of strength, tactics, and motivation, this match is most likely to end 1-0, 2-0, or 1-1. At the very most, maybe 2-1. It is hard to see more than three total goals. With a small line of 2.75, two goals means a full win, three goals means only a half loss, and four or more means a full loss. The chance of this game producing four goals is tiny, so there is plenty of room for error.