To be honest, the line set at South Korea -0.75 is quite fair. It neither overstates their ceiling in breaking down opponents nor underestimates South Africa's fighting spirit at home. The gap in outright strength is obvious: most of South Korea's core players have been tested in Europe's top five leagues, the squad's market value is four times that of South Africa, their expected goals over the last 10 matches have stayed around 1.3, and their counterattacking progression efficiency ranks among the top tier of Asian teams. South Africa are basically built around domestic-based players; they lack structure in settled possession, and in their first two group matches they managed to score only 1 goal, with most of their threat coming from crosses, long balls from the flanks, and set pieces. The mentality gap created by the qualification situation is even more important: South Korea only need a draw to qualify comfortably, so there is no need to push too hard; controlling the tempo and wearing down the opponent is the best option. South Africa, on the other hand, are out if they lose, so they will have no choice but to throw everything forward and go all in, which will in turn leave plenty of space for Son Heung-min and others to counterattack. That said, don’t expect South Korea to win by two clear goals with ease — South African centre-backs win 60% of their aerial duels, and dealing with balls in the air is precisely one of South Korea's natural weaknesses. The home side also have a decent chance of nicking a goal from a set piece. The most likely scenario is South Korea controlling the game and edging it by one goal through counterattacks, with a narrow win being the most logical outcome. In that sense, South Korea -0.75 lands right on expectations and offers excellent value.