Don’t just see Haaland and Norway racking up goals in World Cup qualifying and assume this will be a high-scoring game. In fact, the safer angle here is under 3 goals. A lot of people’s impression of Norway’s attack still comes from those qualifying matches where they were hammering weaker sides, winning by four or five at times and making it look like Haaland would score just by standing there. But you have to break the numbers down. What level were those qualifying opponents really at? Moldova and Estonia, for example, had poor defenses to begin with, so Norway naturally made it look easy. But when they came up against teams that sat deep properly and defended in an organized way, Norway immediately ran out of ideas. In a friendly against Switzerland, the Swiss dropped back and defended in their own half. Norway dominated possession and shots, but still couldn’t score a single goal and had to settle for a dull 0-0 draw. Against Morocco, they only scored once. It’s not that Haaland isn’t good enough; it’s that Norway’s attacking system relies heavily on counterattacks. When opponents don’t come out, they simply don’t know how to play. What kind of approach will Iraq take in this match? It’s obvious they will park the bus and defend to the death. After all, they’re only at the World Cup for the first time in 40 years, and they have no intention of going toe-to-toe with Norway. If they can concede fewer goals, or even nick a point, that will already be a win. With a five-man defense and four midfielders packed tightly around the box, there may not even be space for Haaland to make his run, let alone get up and attack the ball. Norway may want to press high, but Iraq are not going to play along in possession. They’ll simply clear it long from the back, skipping the midfield entirely. No matter how aggressively you press, what’s the point if you never win the ball? In the end, Norway will have to play a settled, positional game — and that just happens to be the one thing they are least comfortable with. On top of that, Norway’s midfield has only Ødegaard as a real creator; the rest are basically workers who do the dirty running. No one else can help with the build-up or make the incisive passes between the lines. If Iraq assign two men to shadow Ødegaard and stop him from playing comfortably, Norway’s attack will basically be reduced to aimless crosses from the wings. And with Norway’s crossing quality, the success rate is not even 30%. High balls into the box won’t scare Iraq’s center-backs, who are more than capable of heading them clear. No matter how good Haaland is, he can’t really head the ball in with two or three defenders around him. Without space, even the best finishing ability becomes useless. The same logic applies the other way around too: Iraq’s own attack is not great either. Their main striker is injured, so they’ll be relying on counterattacks and set pieces, which makes it hard to break down Norway’s defense. Norway’s back line is made up of regular starters from Europe’s top leagues, with size, strength, and excellent aerial ability. Iraq’s limited counterattacking threat is unlikely to create sustained danger. In simple terms, Norway will struggle to score many, and Iraq will struggle even more. Put the two sides together, and the goal total naturally doesn’t look likely to be high. There’s also another easily overlooked factor: this is the opening match of the World Cup, and both teams will be tense. This Norway squad may be called a golden generation, but for most of them it will be their first World Cup appearance. Once they’re out there, the first 30 minutes are likely to be cautious rather than aggressive. They won’t come out all guns blazing. Iraq, needless to say, will be fully focused on defending, and their concentration levels will be extremely high. For the first 60 minutes, they are unlikely to be broken down easily. By the time the game opens up a little, there may not be much time left, so getting to three goals or more is not easy. Haaland’s fitness is another issue. He has just finished a full Premier League and Champions League season and has been going nonstop for nearly a year, so he is already physically drained. Add the time-zone change and jet lag, and his sharpness is bound to dip. A full 90 minutes of high-intensity sprinting and constant box runs is unrealistic. The later the game goes, the weaker his impact is likely to become, so a brace or even a hat-trick would not come easy. Of course, football can always throw up surprises. If a penalty is awarded early, or if one team goes down to 10 men after a red card, the whole picture changes. But based on the normal tactical setup and the difference in overall strength, this match is most likely to end 1-0, 2-0, or 1-1. The total goals are unlikely to go over three. Under 3 goals offers a relatively strong margin of safety and is worth taking as the main reference.