A lot of people bring up 2002 whenever this match is mentioned, saying that since Senegal beat France back then, they can pull off another upset now. That’s just treating old almanacs like gospel. What was France’s situation more than 20 years ago? Zidane was injured, the starting lineup was full of veterans in their 30s, the pre-tournament preparations were a mess, and the whole team was so arrogant they didn’t take their opponents seriously. That loss was self-inflicted — it wasn’t because Senegal were genuinely strong enough to go toe-to-toe with France. What is this current France team like? Mbappé is in his prime up front, Dembélé and Coman are flying down the wings, Tchouaméni is as solid as a rock in midfield, and the back line is packed with starters from Europe’s biggest clubs. Their squad depth is easily among the top three at the World Cup — this is nothing like the 2002 team. Look at Senegal too. Don’t be fooled just because the Africa Cup of Nations title sounds impressive; compared with true elite clubs and national teams, they’re still a level below in pure quality. Their style is built on aggressive pressing high up the pitch and quick wing counterattacks. That can trouble teams of similar level, but against a side like France, who are more composed in possession and press even harder, it’s hard for them to get anything going. If you want to play on the counter, first you need to be able to win the ball and move it cleanly, right? With France pressing high, Senegal will struggle even to build out from the back. Their midfielders aren’t tidy enough in tight spaces, and once they’re pressed, mistakes are likely. France will have the ball for long stretches, and Senegal simply won’t be able to launch many counters. Mané is certainly excellent, but one man can’t do it all alone. France have two strong defensive full-backs, plus midfield cover ready to step in at any moment. If they shut him down, Senegal’s attack is cut in half. Some people say Senegal are so defensively solid that France can only win by one goal, but that means they don’t understand the real nature of Senegal’s defense. Senegal’s defending relies on numbers in midfield and sheer running power — it’s intensity built on fitness, not outstanding individual quality across the back line. But that kind of approach can’t last the full 90 minutes. After 60 minutes, once the legs start to go, the defensive gaps appear immediately. The one thing France fear least is a battle of stamina. They have a bench full of regulars from the top five leagues, ready to come on and keep the pressure up, and the longer the match goes on, the bigger their advantage becomes. In previous World Cups, France scored more goals in the second half than in the first — that’s exactly why. They grind you down for the first 60 minutes until you’re out of gas, then keep piling on wave after wave of attacks, making it hard not to score. There’s another key point: this is the first match of the group stage, and France definitely won’t be holding anything back. There’s no need to explain how important finishing top of the group is at the World Cup — it helps you avoid a lot of strong teams in the knockout rounds. So France won’t just want to win; they’ll want to maximize their goal difference as well. Deschamps may look conservative, but he never messes around in the opening group game. If it’s time to attack, he attacks, especially against an opponent with some history attached. He’ll want to put them in their place. Even if Senegal want to sit deep and defend, they may not be able to hold on. The gap in quality is obvious, and if they spend the whole match under pressure, a goal is only a matter of time — and once the first one goes in, the second usually isn’t far behind. Don’t believe in upset magic. At the end of the day, the World Cup is about raw strength. Senegal are an African powerhouse, no doubt, but compared with France — a true elite heavyweight — they are at least one level behind. On normal form, a two-goal France win is the baseline.