Based on samples from the last 12 official matches and data modeling from the first two rounds of this World Cup, the probability of Bosnia and Herzegovina winning by 2 goals or more in this match stands out relatively clearly, and -1.25 has ordinary reference value, but no absolute certainty. From the perspective of underlying strength, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s total squad value is around €126 million, more than six times that of Qatar. The attacking pairing of Džeko and Demirović generates a combined expected goals output of 1.45 per game, with finishing efficiency placing them in the upper-middle tier in Europe. Qatar’s squad is built around players from the domestic league, and against European-level opposition they concede an average of 14.2 shots per match, showing an inherent weakness in defensive resilience. In terms of form, Qatar were thrashed 0-6 by Canada in the second round, and two starting defenders were sent off and suspended, further reducing defensive cohesion after rotation. The team also concedes 67% of its goals in the second half, leaving little margin for error when fitness drops. Bosnia and Herzegovina, despite losing 1-4 to Switzerland in the second round, held Canada to a draw in the opening match, so the foundation of their defensive structure remains intact. They also win 54% of aerial duels, giving them a clear advantage against Qatar’s height disadvantage in defense. From a motivation standpoint, both teams have one point and need a win to keep their hopes of advancing alive. Bosnia and Herzegovina have a smaller goal-difference deficit and only need a victory to push for third place in the group, so their attacking approach should be more stable. Qatar, meanwhile, need a big win to overturn the goal-difference gap, and throwing men forward recklessly would only expose more gaps at the back -1.25