Fundamentals: In the final round of Group A at the World Cup, South Korea have 3 points and will almost certainly advance with a draw, while South Africa have 1 point and must win to keep their hopes alive, so their motivation is more urgent. South Korea are ranked 25th in the FIFA rankings with a squad value of around €180 million, and their Europe-based core is intact; South Africa are ranked 60th with a squad value of around €45 million, rely mainly on domestic-based players, and there is an objective gap in overall strength. Tactics and data: South Korea average 13.5 shots per game, but have been kept scoreless three times in their last six matches, with inconsistent efficiency against deep defensive blocks; South Africa primarily use a 4-2-3-1 low-block system. They drew with the Czech Republic in the second round, which has already verified their defensive resilience. Their only obvious weakness is finishing in open play, and they have conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game in their last 10 matches. Reference angle: Based on the current sample of matches, South Africa have a decent chance of taking something at home, and the home side +0.75 has ordinary reference value. However, they must be wary of the uncertainty brought by South Korea’s wing play and counterattacking threat. In this Group A finale, South Korea have the edge on paper, but the qualification situation means the two teams will approach the match with very different mindsets. A draw would almost secure qualification for South Korea, so they may not push forward at full strength in attack. In addition, the team’s efficiency in breaking down deep defenses has been unstable, with three scoreless games in their last six, and they do not have many solutions in settled possession. South Africa are in a do-or-die battle and are extremely disciplined defensively. Their ability to hold Czech Republic to a draw in the second round was enough to show the team’s resilience. After dropping deep as a unit, they look to create danger through counterattacks and set pieces. Although their finishing is average, they are difficult to break down easily when defending for their lives. Overall, South Africa have a decent chance of covering the line, and the home side +0.75 angle has some value.