Against Bosnia and Herzegovina, under 2.5 is the more pragmatic standard angle.
First, let’s talk about Switzerland’s old problem: the classic case of “all bark and no bite.” They dominate possession, pile on crosses and short passes, but when it comes to finishing in front of goal, they fall short. In the opening match against Qatar, they spent the whole game on the front foot and had 26 shots, but only scored a penalty; they failed to create a single decent clear-cut chance from open play. Breaking down a low block has never been their strength, and once they take the lead they like to slow the tempo, keep the ball, and kill the clock. If 1-0 is enough, they will not push for 2-0. Winning without covering the spread is the norm.
As for Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is even less to say. Returning to the World Cup for the first time in 12 years, they earned their place largely through defense. Their five-man back line is built like a bunker, and the midfield often disrupts opponents’ rhythm with fouls. Up front, they rely on Džeko as the main target man; he is too old to keep running in behind, and they cannot generate pace on the counterattack. If they can create two or three decent chances in a match, that already counts as an overachievement.
One side attacks inefficiently, the other hardly wants to attack at all. Most of the game will likely be spent in midfield battles and circulating the ball, with very few real threats on goal. In a normal match, the total goals are very unlikely to reach the 2.5 line. Of course, football is never 100% certain, but this angle does offer a better margin for error.