A lot of people still have a fixed impression of this matchup, stuck on the 2018 extra-time clash and the 1-0 at Euro 2020, thinking that whenever these two teams meet it turns into a midfield scrap with very few goals. But you need to understand what England were like tactically back then. Under Southgate, they played a conservative, safety-first counterattacking style, happy to win by one and never two. Now? Since Tuchel took over, the whole tactical idea has changed. It’s all about high pressing and pushing up the entire team, with the full-backs flying forward in attack and the shape turning into a 3-2-5. The message is clear: they want to pin you back, wear down your defense through sustained pressure, and break you open. In eight World Cup qualifiers, they scored 22 goals and conceded none. That’s not just strong defending — the attacking pressure is real too. With this kind of approach, you expect them to sit back and play for a 0-0? Absolutely impossible. As for Croatia, don’t assume that just because they’re older now, they can only sit deep and defend. This is Luka Modrić’s last World Cup, and they’re coming in to push for one more big result, not just to make up the numbers. Dalic’s 3-4-2-1 system is built around controlling the midfield, using the wing-backs to get forward, and creating chances on the counter — it’s not some pure defensive bus-parking setup. If England push high, Croatia can work the ball out with a few quick passes in midfield; Perišić bursting down the flank and Kramarić attacking the box can create danger immediately. How did they beat England in the 2018 semifinal? By controlling midfield, patiently grinding out chances, and finally striking back. They’re not afraid to play open football against you — if anything, they’re more worried when you sit back and refuse to come out. Some people say both teams have strong midfields and that it’ll be a brutal battle with very few chances. That’s only half right. A fierce midfield contest often creates transition opportunities. Think about it: when England press high and Croatia try to play out from the back, a turnover means a direct chance against the defense; when Croatia control the ball and break quickly, England can be left with space behind them, and that becomes a one-on-one level threat. This kind of back-and-forth tempo is more likely to produce goals than slow, static positional play. It’s not that strong midfield duels automatically mean fewer goals — the key is whether both sides can exploit transitions. These two teams both have that ability. There’s another point that’s easy to overlook: both defenses have obvious vulnerabilities, they’re not impenetrable walls. For England, the full-backs push high, so space is naturally left behind them, and the center-backs are a bit slow when shifting across. They are especially vulnerable to pace in transition — the goal Japan scored against them in a warm-up match was a perfect example. For Croatia, the wing-backs have aged, their recovery speed isn’t what it used to be, and against someone like Saka, who can drive at defenders and burst past them, they simply can’t keep up. The central defense is also slow to turn, and Bellingham’s late runs are very hard to stop. In simple terms, both teams can score against the other, and both have soft spots that can be exposed. A clean sheet for either side would be difficult, let alone a match with very few goals. Set pieces are even more important. Both teams are excellent in this area. England have aerial targets like Kane and Stones, and their corner routines are very creative; nearly a third of their goals in World Cup qualifying came from set pieces. Croatia have Gvardiol and Lovren, who are both strong in the air, and they’re smart at attacking the ball, so every corner can create danger. In a World Cup opener, players are pumped up, challenges are heavier, and fouls are more frequent — which means plenty of free-kick and corner opportunities. If one set piece goes in, the deadlock is broken, and once the game opens up, more goals often follow naturally. Some may argue that teams are cautious in opening matches of major tournaments and won’t dare to push forward too early. That may have been true ten years ago, but not necessarily now. Modern football is faster and faster, and top teams care more and more about getting off to a fast start. If you can score early, you take control early. England want revenge and want to make a statement, so they will surely come out with intent and won’t be timid. Croatia also won’t be satisfied with just avoiding defeat — they want all three points if possible. With both sides having something to prove, neither will want to sit deep. Once the transition speed increases, chances will come naturally. Of course, football is never 100% predictable. If both goalkeepers suddenly turn into superheroes, or if an early red card completely changes the rhythm, that’s another matter. But based on the normal balance of strength, tactics, and motivation, this match is very likely to end 2-1, 1-2, or 2-2. However you look at it, that clears 2.5 goals. This angle has been undervalued because of past head-to-head impressions, but in reality the value is very high — it’s a strong option worth serious attention.