The Asian handicap opened at -0.5 and was later adjusted to -0.75 close to kickoff, while the home side’s odds stayed in the low-to-mid range at 0.93-0.97. Against the backdrop of Celta’s unspectacular home record (5 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in 18 matches), the move up to -0.75 shows that the bookmakers’ confidence in a home victory has increased. A -0.75 line means the home team only needs to win by one goal to half-win and by two goals to win outright. The fact that the books were willing to set such a deeper line, while keeping the odds below 0.97, indicates the payout risk remains under control. In the European odds market, the home win price has been cut from the 1.80-1.85 range to 1.70-1.75, the draw has risen from 3.60-3.70 to 3.80-4.00, and the away win has surged from 4.00-4.20 to 4.50-5.00. The bookmakers’ later adjustments clearly point toward the home side, almost ruling out the visitors taking anything from the match. Sevilla’s squad is severely depleted, with several players sidelined through injury or suspension, including key defenders, midfielders and forwards, leaving a noticeable impact on both ends of the pitch. Celta also have injury concerns, but their overall structure is more intact. In the first meeting between the two sides this season, Celta won 1-0 away from home, and returning to their own ground gives them an even stronger psychological edge. For this match, the sharp drop in the home win price, combined with a visiting squad that is short-handed and with little left to play for, suggests Celta are well placed to end the campaign with a home victory. Asian handicap recommendation: Celta -0.75.