When two teams that both need points meet, an open exchange is usually the first thing that comes to mind. But in this Bundesliga finale, the possibility of a low-scoring game deserves even more attention.
Borussia Dortmund’s away scoring efficiency is not as strong as the table suggests. Half of their eight away wins came by a single goal, and four of their last five away matches produced no more than two total goals. Their firepower on the road is far less intimidating than it is at the Westfalenstadion. This season, Dortmund have averaged 1.75 goals per away match, but four of their last six games overall have finished with fewer than three total goals.
Werder Bremen’s attack is one of the weakest home offenses in the Bundesliga, with an average of just over one goal per game. In their last five home meetings with Borussia Dortmund, Bremen have been kept scoreless four times. But under relegation pressure, they have produced low-scoring games in both of their last two home matches. Bremen’s home over rate this season is only 31%, and 10 of their 16 home games have seen no more than two total goals.
Both sides are missing key players. Bremen are without full-backs Mitchell Weiser and Yukinari Sugawara, while Dortmund’s center-back options are also heavily affected by injuries. An incomplete back line usually raises concerns about defending, but on the other hand, it also disrupts the fluency of the attacking structure. This looks set to be a cautious farewell, with not many goals.