The over/under line has been pushed all the way to 3.25, which is a pretty high threshold. Tonight we’re not chasing the handicap or backing the outright winner; our target is under 3.25. But let’s be clear from the start — this isn’t a free gift. It’s more like a low-scoring battle where we’re betting on who blinks first, a half-win, half-loss kind of play that you’ll have to live with emotionally. First, let’s talk about motivation. France, as the defending champions, know very well how Deschamps handles knockout football. His usual formula is to slow things down and switch to possession-based control once they lead, preferring an ugly game to an open, end-to-end exchange. Mbappé’s explosiveness is certainly frightening, but once Sweden drop deeper and pack the middle, France may find even their wide attacks running into a wall. More often than not, they’ll just be passing it around outside the box. Sweden need little explanation here either. Isak and Kulusevski are dangerous on the counter, but with the team’s tactical discipline, they will absolutely sit deep and set up a proper bus against stronger opposition. Mentally, they can easily accept a narrow defeat and will never stretch the back line just to chase an equalizer. With both sides thinking that way, the game is likely to get bogged down in a grind. Looking at the data, the signals are also pointing in the same direction. In France’s last eight knockout matches in major tournaments, six finished with no more than two total goals. Their possession often climbs above 60%, but the actual conversion rate from open play is not high, and many of their shots are speculative attempts from outside the box. Sweden, meanwhile, conceded just four goals in 10 qualifying matches, averaging only 0.4 goals against per game. The defense led by Lindelöf has rarely collapsed even against top opposition. More importantly, in the teams’ recent meetings, the matches have all been relatively dull, with none of them going over the 2-goal mark. A 3.25 line may look generous on paper, but once the game starts, goals tend to be scarce. Of course, we have to acknowledge the risk. If France nick an early goal and force Sweden to come out, Les Bleus’ counterattacking threats could suddenly blow the scoreline open. But given the Vikings’ temperament, they are more likely to hold out until the later stages before finally cracking. So under 3.25 is really a bet on the suffocating defense of the first 75 minutes. If it ends 1-0 or 0-0, the under cashes fully; 2-1 means only a half loss; only if the game goes crazy and produces three or more goals do we lose completely.